WEDNESDAY SHOWERS-TSTORMS SHOULD (MOSTLY) MISS NORTH BAY

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While California is locked in a pretty typical early fall heat-up, most eyes are now on a system approaching from the south that may bring thunderstorms to the state.

Through Tuesday, temperatures will be hot, with inland highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees on Tuesday. That’s 10-20 degrees above average in many places.

On Wednesday a low pressure center off the SoCal coast will pull in moisture and push north into Central California.

Right now almost all of the models show it dropping its rain over Central California and missing us.

There remains a slight chance of showers across the North Bay on Wednesday, but pretty much all of the action, including possible thundershowers, should stay to the south. But, a few showers over the North Bay can’t be ruled out later on Wednesday. We’ll keep an eye on the track of the low pressure system.

Like our last weak storm, this subtropical disturbance is carrying lots of water in the atmosphere. What that means is that any thunderstorms should be accompanied by a fair amount of rain…in other words, less of a chance of dry thunderstorms. The amount of precipitable water in the atmospheric column, or PWAT, is expected to be up to 200% of normal for this time of year.

So, where that air gets some lift, like in the coastal ranges and central Sierra, a half inch of rain or more may fall on Wednesday and Thursday.

What about the next week or so?

The Climate Prediction Center has us slightly wetter than average. This is because we have a few weak storms that may brush Northern California over the next 10 days or so. One or two may bring us showers. We’ll keep you updated.