Watching the Weekend Storm

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Due to its importance in reducing smoke and fire activity across Northern California, we’ll be posting updates this week at NNB on the approaching storm system for Friday and Saturday. This system has the potential to bring the first significant rain to the region since last spring.

However, as we said on Monday, the various model solutions can vary a lot in a matter of a few days or even hours. Here is what they show today, Tuesday October 5th. Expect this to continue to change as we get closer to the event.

First off, the GFS model shows this as a weak storm, bringing the North Bay about a tenth of an inch of rain by Monday. It sends most of the rain north into Oregon.

Meanwhile, the European model is more optimistic, showing our area receiving more than a half inch by the end of the weekend. This model has been more consistent.

Finally, the National Blended Model, which averages lots of models, still shows significant precipitation of about an inch for the area.

We’ll keep you informed as this changes this week. The forecast is important not just for its impact on severe fire conditions, but in terms of its effect on burn scars across the state. At this point it looks very unlikely that there will be any threat of dangerous runoff and debris flows from this first, and most likely, fairly weak storm of the season. Stay tuned!