STRONG STORM AND FLOOD RISK LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY

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STORM SUMMARY

One of the strongest storms of the season is bearing down on the North Bay and Central California, with the potential for minor to moderate flooding, periods of heavy rain, and high winds.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The storm was just off the California coast Sunday afternoon. A warm front will initially bring steady rain late Sunday, with heavier rain beginning overnight.

There will be several periods of heavier rain as the low spins off the coast west of San Francisco from Sunday into Tuesday.

By Monday afternoon the warmest air (and AR moisture feed) will slip south and colder air, heavy showers and the possibility of thundershowers will be over the Bay Area and North Bay.

There was still model disagreement Sunday as to rainfall totals. The European and Canadian models were wettest, with 3-5 inches forecast for the North Bay through Wednesday morning.

While the WPC blended model showed somewhat less, about 2 to 4 inches (largely due to the drier GFS model averaged in).

With all of the recent rain a flood watch is in effect for much of California, including the North Bay.

Winds will gust from 30-40 mph at times, with the strongest winds in the hills and at the coast from late Sunday to late Monday. Here are the strongest wind gusts forecast by the European model.

With soil now saturated, widespread urban and small stream flooding is likely, however the River Forecast Center doesn’t expect mainstem river flooding in our region. One exception is Clear Lake where at least one lake guage may rise to monitor levels.

However many locations on the Sacramento River may reach advisory or minor flood levels. (orange and red dots).

We may get a brief period of dry weather Thursday and Friday of next week, however most models now show a closed low pressure center spinning off our coast by next weekend (and the possibility of more rain). More updates to come!