STILL WATCHING TROPICAL MOISTURE HEADED NORTH

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As we enter the 2nd day of our 3 day heat wave, forecasters continue to watch a surge of tropical moisture set to arrive in southern California beginning Wednesday.

You can see the region of high moisture content, which is the remnants of former hurricane Mario, in white below. It will make a turn to the northeast tomorrow.

How far north will the rain and possible thunderstorms reach? The different models don’t agree.

The latest European ensemble model has shifted rain to the north and west from the previous runs. The ensemble model is important, because it averages lots of different possible outcomes.

You can see how it looks here. If this proves correct, we could pick up a tenth or two in the North Bay beginning late on Thursday. And we’ll be on the lookout for possible thunderstorms.

This wetter outlook for the North Bay is a change from this earlier model run, taken only a few hours before.

It should be noted that the European is now the wettest of the current models for the North Bay, a flip from yesterday. Many/most models still show less rain for us.

So is the European on to something? A trend toward more rain and maybe thunderstorms for us in the North Bay? We’ll keep watching.

What is certain is that, whether or not we get much rain, it will feel very muggy Thursday and Friday as lots of tropical moisture streams into California. More to come!