SIGNIFICANT RAIN LIKELY ACROSS NORTH BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK
Forecast models have come into widespread agreement that significant rain will reach the North Bay early in the coming week. The European AI model was the first to pick up on this trend several days ago. Now all of the major models have jumped on board.
Here is the current outlook for storm systems arriving Monday through Wednesday from the European model.
And the rainfall amounts expected across the North Bay from the National Blend of Models. There is pretty good agreement at present among the various models that most of the North Bay may pick up around an inch of rain from Monday-Wednesday.
The exact timing of the storms will change over the coming days, but right now it appears the first one may arrive Monday morning to midday.
Even more encouraging is that most ensemble model output now supports this fairly wet scenerio for Northern California. Here is the European ensemble model spread on Thursday, with around three quarters of its members agreeing on significant rain for Northern California early next week. This is called clustering and is something that provides forecasters more confidence in an outcome.
Finally, the Climate Prediction Center has caught onto the trend, showing above average rainfall for our region in its 6-10 day outlook.
So, things are looking positive for two moderate sized storms to impact the North Bay early next week. Still, we’ll be watching the trends and provide updates as conditions evolve. Stay tuned!
Author: newsofthenorthbay
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