MODELS CONVERGING ON WINTER-LIKE STORM FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY

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THURSDAY UPDATE

In the past 24 hours, all of the forecast models and their ensembles have come together on a stormy solution for Monday and Tuesday across Northern California.

As expected, the lagging GFS model has now joined the others in depicting a sizeable storm spinning up just off the Northern California coast.

There is rather amazing model agreement on the strength and position of the upper level low that will bring us all of the rain.

Here is the European ensemble forecast for the position of the intense low by late on Monday the 13th.

And now here’s the GFS ensemble forecast. Almost identical position and strength. That is rarely seen 4 days in advance.

In both cases, an intense upper level low pressure center will drop down from the north and spin up off the Mendocino and Sonoma County coasts. Because of this agreement and the location of the low (just off the coast and over the ocean), all of the rainfall forecasts have increased.

NEW RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE NORTH BAY

Keeping in mind that these numbers will change, here are the current model estimates for rainfall across the North Bay. All of them are in the range of 1-3 inches.

A tenth or two may fall as a weak storm passes to the north on Friday and Saturday, but all of the rest is forecast to come on Monday and Tuesday.

EUROPEAN MODEL