MODELS CONVERGING ON RAIN AROUND NOVEMBER 5TH
News of the North Bay has begun adding machine learning (AI) models to our forecasts due to their potential for increased accuracy.
Although still being tested, the Google GraphCast model has so far proven superior to the gold standard European high resolution model in medium range forecasting. As has the European AI model.
Applying them to the upcoming weather for Northern California, we have more confidence that a moderate storm may be headed into the region around November 5th.
All of the models mentioned now show this system over NorCal during that time. This is of course a long range forecast, but we will be watching this system closely over the coming days and update the forecast frequently.
Here is the standard European hi res model output for November 4-5. (Image 1)
The European AI (AIFS) outlook is very similar. (Image 2)
And finally, the new Google GraphCast AI model output for November 4-5. (Image 3) Again showing a storm over NorCal.
All three models also show the storm track digging south into California during the same time frame.
More to come.
Author: newsofthenorthbay
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