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The ingredients are coming together for a major storm or series of storms across Northern California next week. The action should begin around Tuesday the 14th and continue for several days, at least.


Although details are likely to change, there is enough model agreement now to say that the biggest storms of the season are very likely to arrive by the middle of next week. (We will provide additional updates as the arrival of the storms nears.)

For now, the latest models runs have been consistent in showing a major low pressure center moving into position off the California coast early next week.

The European, GFS and Canadian models all show some version of a 2-4 day storm moving in around Tuesday the 14th, and potentially continuing through Thursday or Friday.

A key factor is that the ensemble models, which look at dozens of possibilities, also see this storm series clearly.

For example, here are the individual members of the European ensemble outlook, almost all of which show a lot of rain across Northern and Central California from the 13th to the 19th of November.

The Climate Prediction Center is highlighting this on their guidance, including the chances for excessive rainfall beginning in the middle of next week.

While exact numbers are a guess this far out, each of the major deterministic models are quite bullish on rainfall amounts, all of it falling from late Tuesday the 14th, through Thursday the 16th.

So, it’s safe to say you should consider putting away outdoor furniture and clearing out your gutters by the end of the upcoming weekend.

And, there are additional signs that next week’s storms may not be the last this month. The long range outlook suggests the period of November 21st through the 27th may be wet as well. Stay tuned!




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