HEAT FORECAST TRENDS LESS EXTREME. RAINFALL LESSENS FIRE DANGER.

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The impact of Sunday’s significant (by June standards) rain across Northern California is already being felt. From the Bay Area north, many areas received 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches of rain. (Image 1) In the North Bay a half inch and up fell over wide areas, and totals included more than a inch in places like Occidental, Cazadero and parts of the Sonoma and Mendocino coast. (Image 2)

FUEL MOISTURE RISES

The Energy Release Component of fuels saw an immediate benefit, with levels plunging (blue line) below average for the date. (gray line) (Image 3) At the same time fuel moisture levels rose significantly (blue line). (Image 4)

As we well know, one big heat up can dry things out, but it is better having the blast of moisture than not. In fact this is the first time in 5 years that much of the North Bay has seen measurable rain in June.

END OF WEEK HEAT UP

As for the heat coming our way, the models are hinting it may not be as extreme as first believed. We are still expecting a 3 day event, with high pressure peaking on Friday. (Image 5) Highs will soar to the mid 90s in the valleys of the North Bay Thursday (Image 6), perhaps top 100 in a few locations Friday (Image 7), and cool just slightly on Saturday. (Image 8)

SUNDAY COOL DOWN

By Sunday, a low pressure trough sags into Northern California, bringing an abrupt end to the heat event. (Image 9) In fact highs will go from way above normal Friday (Image 10), to several degrees below normal on Sunday into Monday. (Images 11 and 12)