UPDATE: THE LATEST FLOODING FORECASTS FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER, LOCAL NORTH BAY STREAMS.

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The Russian River is expected to come over its banks at both Guerneville and Hopland on Thursday in the latest forecasts from the California Nevada River Forecast Center.

The latest guidance shows the Russian is forecast to go above flood stage early Thursday, then reach a peak of more than 35 feet at Guerneville (32 feet is flood stage) late on Thursday (Image 1). Flood stage is expected to occur again early Monday, reaching another peak late on Monday at around 35 feet. By comparison the most recent significant Guerneville floods in 2019 reached 45 feet.

However, as shown in this “ensemble” forecast, the Russian has the potential to go far higher (or lower) depending on how much rain actually falls. (Image 2) And you can see that additional peaks above flood stage are very likely over the next 10 days as more storms arrive.

Meanwhile, the Russian River at Hopland is also expected to peak well above flood stage early on Thursday and again early on Sunday. (Image 3)

The Russian at Healdsburg is expected to remain below flood stage for the forseeable future, but may reach monitor stage. (Image 4)

Most of the region’s “flashier” creeks and streams will rise more quickly, jumping over their banks fairly early in the storm series. Here are forecasts for Santa Rosa Creek downtown, Mark West Creek at Mirabel, and Laguna de Santa Rosa at Stony Point. (Images 5, 6, 7)

Overall, a series of moisture plumes continue to be pointed at the West Coast, (Image 8) driven by a strong zonal jet stream (Image 9).

According to the latest blended model forecasts, rainfall may reach 10-15 inches across the North Bay over the next week, keeping the risk of moderate to major flooding with us to mid-month. (Image 10)