Upcoming Storms for the North Bay. A Tale of Two Systems.

Share with Friends

There were enough changes to our incoming Friday storm and the one following it on Wednesday that we decided to post another weather update today. First, the not so good news.

The storm for Friday continues to show signs of weakening as it enters Northern California, and the rain amounts have come down again. The storm is approaching, but the expected rain totals by Saturday are down to about a quarter inch, with more in the hills, for the North Bay. (Images 1 and 2)

Now to the good news. We’ll be clearing out on Saturday and remain mostly dry until Wednesday, when another storm arrives. This one has shown the opposite trend to Friday’s storm….models show it strengthening and dropping more rain. Will this hold? Well, we’re still almost a week away, but for now the news is positive. Here is how next Wednesday is shaping up according to the European model, with the storm sweeping through and the expected rain amounts by Thursday. (Images 3 and 4)

Both the GFS and Canadian models are forecasting rain for next Wednesday as well, but are somewhat drier. However, for medium range forecasts, the European model is usually more accurate.

And, after Wednesday? Well that far out the models can only make guesses and look at general patterns. But for several weeks at least the outlook looks wetter than normal for the North Bay and most of Northern California. Here is how the European model sees our chances of above, or below normal precipitation through early December. (Image 5) Much like the Climate Forecast Service long range outlook, it sees us in the above normal range.

People have been asking if it’s safe to put away the fire evacuation “go bag” yet. If the next two storms perform as some models are predicting, the answer almost certainly will be yes by late in the coming week.