The Last Gasp of Winter?

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As warming temperatures arrive for the weekend, there remain strong signs that we may not have seen the last of winter.

The last week of April may bring showers back to the region, with a few ensemble models showing up to an inch, or more, for Sonoma County. Are we buying it? Not yet, but the signs are positive.

First, if you’ve followed us in the past, you know the MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation, can impact us here on the West Coast. For late April it is finally turning positive for a pattern change to wet conditions. Here it is. Tropical thunderstorms moving into the Indian Ocean. Good for us. (Image 1)

Also, the PNA, Pacific North American Pattern is turning negative, which means for us, more chance that the jet stream will bring storms south. (Image 2)

The ensemble models are picking up on this. Also, the European model sees rain around the 25th, as does the GFS. (Images 3 and 4)

And, how does an inch or rain by May 1st sound? (Image 5)

Of course, we’ve been down this road before in this La Nina season. But, for now, let’s enjoy the warm weekend, with weather in the 80s, with the hopes that some much-needed moisture will arrive before the end of the month.