STORM PAUSE. RESERVOIRS IMPROVING. SNOWPACK HEALTHY.

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As we enjoy a break from the December storm series there is clear evidence that the storms have improved our state’s water outlook tremendously. However, after a multi-year drought, complete recovery will be a winter-long process.

SHORT TERM

The forecast models have backed away from a big storm for the 4th-5th of January, with most now sending the brunt of the storm north of central California. (Image 1) By early next Thursday we may receive a half to full inch across portion of the North Bay. (Image 2)

After that, a 2nd storm is possible on January 7th or 8th (Image 3)

The trend however will be drier through the 2nd week of January as high pressure pushes into the region. (Image 4)

WATER OUTLOOK

Recovery across the state has been significant. Most stations are running 150-300 percent of normal precipitation as of December 30th. (Image 5)

Snowpack water content is running well above normal for the date. (Image 6) Reservoirs are also recovering from two years of drought. Here are current levels. (Image 7)

NORTH BAY

For the North Bay, precipitation is well above normal. (Image Meanwhile, our two main reservoirs are recovering, but a continuing wet winter will be key to supplies in 2022. (Image 9) Lake Mendocino is now running higher than last year at this time, while Lake Sonoma has almost reached last year’s level.

LONG TERM

The models suggest after a mid-month break, rain will return later in January. (Image 10) And the European long range shows a wetter January than average across NorCal. (Image 11) We’ll cross our fingers.