RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOUNTAINS, RAIN LIKELY NEXT WEEK

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Gusty winds from the north have prompted the NWS to issue a Red Flag Warning for the mountains of the North Bay beginning late Wednesday as a cold low pressure center moves inland to our north.

Actually, winds are expected to be moderate and humidity higher than in many past events, and even the NWS is calling this wind event “marginal.” The Red Flag Warning goes through 5PM on Thursday, with the strongest winds of between 30-40 MPH only expected on the highest peaks of Napa, Sonoma and Lake Counties from late Wednesday through early Thursday AM.

Also, both fuel and soil moisture levels across the West are much higher than the same time last year, reducing the likelihood of dangerous fire conditons . Here are conditions this year. (blue is moist, red is dry)

And conditions at the same time last year.

Meanwhile, the increased northerly winds have brought lots of wildfire smoke to the North Bay and much of Central California. Readings Wednesday were in the unhealthful range, and little improvement is expected Thursday as continuing winds bring more smoke south toward the Bay Area.

The next big weather story may be rain for next week. Models are coming into greater agreement that an unusually strong low pressure center will sag south from the North Pacific, with a cold front bringing rain, perhaps as far south as the Bay Area, from late Monday into Tuesday of next week.

The models don’t agree on amounts for the North Bay, with the European wettest at present. The WPC and National Blend of Models hint that a fairly robust early season rain is very possible, arriving by Monday afternoon.

We’ll see how all of this pans out. Just keep in mind that, here in the North Bay, chances are increasing that our first real rain of the fall season may arrive early next week. That would be good news in terms of fire danger, and could set us up for a relatively benign beginning to October.

More updates to come!