North Bay Looking Dry for Next Two Weeks

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Although we got a brief glimpse of winter, for the next two weeks it appears the North Bay will stay mosty dry, while we wait for the next pattern change to take place.

For now storms will continue to roll through the Pacific Northwest (as you would expect in a La Nina year), and a few may brush far Northern California, but we probably won’t see anything significant.

The satellite image Monday shows those storms lined up and headed for the Pacific Northwest. (Image 1)

On Wednesday a trough will drop south into Northern California, but aside from a few showers in the Sierra and far Northern California, we can expect only a few clouds. (Image 2)

The next chance for anything wet to fall from the skies is probably around November 30th. The European and Canadian models see it, but the American GFS doesn’t. But any showers that do come our way would be light. (Image 3)

With storms brushing us to the north, most models show only a tiny bit of rain coming our way through the first two weeks of December. (Image 4)

Still, there is reason for hope. Although we have a strengthening La Nina pattern underway, we also have a few other circulations that can impact our weather in a significant way. The Pacific North American pattern (plots activity of jet stream) and the Madden Julian Oscillation (tropical thunderstorm convection that impacts our weather) hint that a major change may come our way around mid-December.

The negative phase of the PNA is associated with stormier weather and a more southward dip of the jet stream, potentially carrying storms into California. It is forecast to dip strongly into negative territory just after mid-December. (Image 5)

Meanwhile, as expected the La Nina pattern is also getting stronger, with cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific. (Image 6)

So, in conclusion, where do we stand? Well, for starters we can expect a mostly dry next two weeks at least. But after that, things may get much more interesting. Remember, in an “average” La Nina year we have about an equal chance of above and below normal precipitation in Northern California. And a few large storms can bring us a lot of rain and snow.

It is too far out to forecast with any confidence what storms will arrive and when. But signs are there will be a change. The longest range model we have, the CFS does show a trough digging down the California coast around December 19th. That far out, this is just a guess. (Image 7)