Atmospheric River to Brush North Bay, Big Rain Totals Coming

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After very cold nights Thursday and Friday, with lows in the 20s and lower 30s, the big focus is now on a strong storm arriving Saturday that will bring up to 24 hours of heavy rain to the Bay Area, and the North Bay.

Here it is ramping up in the North Pacific.

This time, Sonoma County and the rest of our region will be on the north side of the heaviest rain, but rain totals are still expected to be impressive, in the 3-7 inch range by late Monday. A big storm.

Here is the forecasted setup, as an atmospheric river associated with an area of low pressure will approach our coast on Saturday.

The stream of moisture will begin near the North Bay, then drift south, bringing heavy rain to the Bay Area, and the central coast.

Here’s the outlook for late on Saturday night according to the European model.

The storm will continue to spin moisture in from Saturday through much of Sunday. By Monday, storm total precipitation should be impressive. Here is the model average through Tuesday. More than 3.5 inches across much of the North Bay, with the wetter areas possibly over 5 inches.

Along the coastal hills mountains south of Monterey, the numbers may be even higher, with up to 7-12 inches possible.

In the Sierra, the storm will arrive as Thanksgiving traffic reaches a peak. If you’re headed that way, be aware that conditions may be very challenging. However, this storm will be much warmer than the last one, so snow levels will remain above 6 thousand feet.