1-2 INCHES OF NORTH BAY RAIN NOW LIKELY SUNDAY-TUESDAY

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The North Bay may be at the bullseye of a unusually cool and wet early season storm that arrives on Sunday. Forecast model solutions are coming into agreement on a rainfall total of 1-2 inches in the North Bay, with significant amounts falling throughout most of Northern California.

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By Sunday, the deep low pressure system will be right off the coast.

Rain should arrive Sunday afternoon, and may last off and on into early Tuesday. Just three days before the storm’s arrival, major forecast models have trended wetter across the board. At present the European model is wettest, with upwards of 2 inches of rain forecast for parts of the North Bay, with the GFS driest, at just over an inch. Others, including the National Blend of Models are in the range of 1.5 inches.

Although important by any measure, this storm will not bring fire season to an end across Northern California. Fuels are at record levels of dryness, and it is all but certain that more warm, dry and windy weather is to come this fall.

However what the storm will do is slow the progression of fire danger, vastly improving the worst fire and fuel conditions, possibly for a matter of weeks. The storm also looks likely to help firefighters gain the upper hand on persistent, ongoing fires like those in far Northern California and the 50 thousand acre Mosquito Fire west of Lake Tahoe.

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