Winter Fades Out...

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A big topic among forecasters currently is the failure of long range forecast models this winter along the West Coast. And the trend continues.

Most recently, the consensus for several weeks was a change to unsettled weather across Northern California in the first week of April. Then in the 2nd week. But as those dates draw near, the models have been flipping to dry forecasts.

At this point, most of us have little faith that rain, now suggested two more weeks in the future, around April 20th by many ensemble (multiple model run) forecasts, will ever occur. It it does, it will be a welcome surprise. (Image 1)

For now, drought conditions and managing them will be the biggest story of the spring and summer season.

Right now, all we have is cool air, as another storm system, once predicted to bring rain, passes by to our east and a cutoff low spins far to our west. (Image 2)

In between, we’re under a “flat ridge” and will be most of the week. That means cool to moderate temperatures in the 60s and perhaps 70s later in the week. No heat waves in the near future.

Overall, continued dry weather through mid-April. (Image 3)

Now, if you’re a dreamer, the models are again offering tantalizing hints of moisture to come. We won’t buy into it for now. But, just in case you’re interested, here is one model’s take on April 20th. (Image 4)

And, as they have, the ensemble forecasts which average 20+ model runs, suggest some rain will arrive in the 2nd half of the month. Where have we seen this before? (Image 5)