Winds Will Drive Fire Behavior

The attached GIF shows forecast winds according to the North American Model for Mesoscale Forecasting. This is among the information that Cal Fire is using to determine fire behavior. You can clearly see the shift to the south, and the changes Sunday as potential for variable winds with tropical moisture arrives.

BEHAVIOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY-SATURDAY

With more marine influence, the fire mostly laid down on all perimeters. The greater humidity with onshore breezes helps to moderate fire behavior. Along the southern perimeter, the fire remains on the ridges above Rio Nido (not in the canyon yet) and up on Mt. Jackson, but shows more easterly movement than southerly. North of Guerneville, the fire is mostly on the ground, backing down slopes. With prevailing winds turning to SW, this is expected to help keep the fire from making advances south toward the Russian River communities. However the fire continues to move east, or southeast generally towards Westside Road.

On the east, the fire moved down certain drainages like the Wallace Creek and Mill Creek, but relatively slowly with air attack and ground crews defending structures.  To the north, the fire advanced slowly overnight with higher humidity, but will be once again flaring up today with hotter temps and lower humidity values.

Hotter, drying air during the afternoon will reinvigorate fire behavior, and winds from the SW will move the fire in new directions, but it is believed, generally to the north and east. Therefore aerial resources will be concentration on the east and northeast side, keeping the fire out of the Dry Creek Valley and areas north of Lake Sonoma.