WET STORM POSSIBLE FOR NORTH BAY JANUARY 12-14

Share with Friends

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY

As Saturday’s quick-moving storm cleared out today (Sunday), the satellite picture showed the Sierra and coastal ranges finally covered in a nice blanket of snow. Up to 20 inches of snow fell across the Sierra Saturday night and the snow extended down into the foothills.

We expected about a quarter inch of rain across the North Bay Saturday, and that’s about what most areas received. Just a minor storm for us.

The next system is due in Wednesday, and once again should drop only light amounts of rain here in the North Bay and Bay Area, while the Sierra will get additional much-needed snowfall.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK – A BIG STORM BREWING?

Over the past day or two the trend among the models has been to bring a sizable storm into Northern California around Friday of this coming week (the 12th). The European model was the first to show the storm breaking through the big high pressure ridge, and now the others are trending in that direction.

This storm would come into California from the west over the ocean and pull in a lot more moisture, making this a potentially quite wet system for the North Bay.

Most of the models are coming on board with this storm. Still though, with almost a week until it’s forecast to arrive much can (and will) change.

So think of this as an early heads-up call about a potentially wet and potent storm for next weekend.

In the most current runs, the European and Canadian models are very wet for next weekend, while the GFS is much drier. The European model has been more reliable so far this winter. Despite that, this big variance in outcomes shows how much uncertainty still exists about this potential storm.

Here is the European rainfall outlook for next weekend, followed by the (much) drier GFS outlook.

WAY OUT THERE IN FANTASYLAND

Looking even further ahead, the European ensemble model is showing a wet pattern continuing, and even getting wetter for Northern California into the 3rd week of January. This outlook features a deep trough of low pressure replacing the high pressure dome in the Pacific west of California.

The Canadian ensemble model is similar to the European and just as wet, but once again the GFS ensemble is drier, with a weaker trough of low pressure developing by the 20th.

We’ll keep an eye on trends and bring you updates as things change. Stay tuned!