WET AND WARM STORM ON THE WAY TO THE NORTH BAY

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SUMMARY

A major weather models continue to agree that a wet storm will arrive in the North Bay on Sunday, with periods of rain continuing through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The first cutoff low is spinning off the California coast in this beautiful satellite view on Saturday.

The low will move inland on Sunday, with rain beginning across the North Bay in the early afternoon and continuing, heavy at times, into Tuesday.

Here is the forecast for Tuesday morning as the spinning low continues to send bands of rain into the North Bay and NorCal.

By Wednesday, the rain totals should add up. 2-4 inches in the valleys of the North Bay, and 5 inches or more possible in the hills. So this storm will be significant. Gusty southerly winds will gust to near 30 mph at times. It will stay mild, with highs generally in the low 60s, and lows in the 40s.

The forecast models disagree over totals, with the WPC averaging in the very wet Canadian model, and the European and GFS models somewhat drier but still impressive.

The first storm should be letting off by midday on Wednesday, just as another cutoff low spins south off the California coast. Most models now agree this one will take a more southerly track, missing us but potentially bringing heavy rain to Southern California on Thursday.

EXTENDED FORECAST

We should dry out with a return of sun from Thursday the 21st, through Christmas Eve, the 24th.

We’ve been talking for quite a while about a possible Christmas storm. And a stormy Christmas week. There is more model agreement now that both will take place. The latest model runs suggest that a significant storm could move in on December 25th or 26th, and continue for 2 days or more. This storm could snarl Christmas traffic across Northern California, especially in the mountains.

The GFS model has the storm moving in late on Christmas, the 25th, but the European model holds it off until the 26th.

This storm looks likely to approach from the north, bringing in colder air and more snow to the mountains. The models also suggest this storm may continue to bring rain and snow to Northern California from the 25th (or 26th) through the 28th…so a possible 2-3 day storm.

Here is the GFS forecast for early on the 28th, showing the system continuing to send bands of rain into Northern California.

It’s too early to talk about rainfall totals with this storm, but they could be significant (1-2 inches plus) and focus mainly over Northern California.

After that, the very long range ensemble forecasts generally agree that the period from December 25th to January 1st may continue to be wetter than normal, with a big center of low pressure staying in place across the Northern Pacific Ocean and along the West Coast.

More updates to come!