Weekend Trending Wetter!
It’s the news we’ve all been hoping to hear. The latest forecasts show our weekend storms trending wetter. At the same time, the ongoing forecast for the rest of the month of December and into January continues to evolve. Now the details.
The first storm will arrive late Friday into early Saturday and bring around a half inch or so of warm rain. This will be the warm front ahead of the cold front that arrives later this weekend. (Images 1 and 2)
By later on Saturday the first rain will be moving out, but by early Sunday and cold front will arrive. The European and GFS forecasts show rain from early Sunday through midday. (Image 3)
Total rain amounts by Monday look promising. And they’ve trended wetter. Around an inch for central Sonoma County. However, amounts do fall off as you go south into the Bay Area, so any changes in the storm trajectory could impact our rain quite a bit. (Image 4)
Looking further ahead, the models are hinting that a trough of low pressure will remain over the west through the 17th or so, and that could allow the North Bay to be brushed by storms. The ensemble models suggest above average rain extending into our region through the 17th. (Images 5 and 6)
After that, tough to get a handle on our weather. Models keep flipping. Suggestions are now that the period shortly before Christmas may bring a weak ridge over Norcal, with dry weather. (Image 7)
And after that? The teleconnections (all of the various seasonal cycles) that impact our weather seem to be coming together with La Nina to create the potential for a wider opening in the storm door for January. Long range forecasts are hinting at a trough and stormier weather developing after Christmas. (Image 8)
Right now that is too far out for the models to forecast with any accuracy, but the potential is clearly there. For now let’s enjoy the rain arriving this weekend, and keep our eyes open for more rain ahead!
Author: newsofthenorthbay
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