Walbridge Fire Update Sunday 10AM

Walbridge Fire Update Sunday 10AM

51,072 Acres, Containment near 5% (Cal Fire 11AM Sunday)

GENERAL BEHAVIOR OVERNIGHT

The Walbridge Fire was relatively quiet once again overnight, and most fire perimeters held as firefighters used the time to continue to dig containment lines using bulldozers on the southern and northeast fire perimeters. Yesterday late afternoon 6 Cal Fire retardant dropping aircraft made cycles to the fire front in the Mt. Jackson area above Rio Nido and Hacienda. The goal was to bolster a dozer break being dug from approximately the Pool Ridge area above Guernewood to Mt. Jackson toward Westside Road in the east. The fire was reportedly “backing” down the creek drainages north of Guerneville and Rio Nido, but still approximately 2 miles distant. This backing behavior is due to winds turning to the south yesterday, and continuing today, impeding the fire’s southward progress. To the north in the Lake Sonoma Area there was only minor expansion overnight as air tankers including VLATs began making large retardant drops once again after approximately 4PM Friday when the inversion cleared. Overnight humidity recoveries aided in keeping the fire lower to the ground overnight and moderating behavior. The fire is expected to once again flare up in this zone this afternoon, as humidity lower and winds rise. On the east front along the Dry Creek Valley the fire was mostly quiet, making only minor progress eastward along drainages leading to the valley, and mostly along the ground and not in the trees.

WEATHER AND WIND OUTLOOK

Key to the fires’ activity today will be winds. They continue to blow from the south or southwest and are light to moderate. This is generally good news for firefighters. However all eyes are on the forecast for a chance of dry lightning and associated erratic winds this afternoon into evening. This coming event is a big reason why Sonoma County initiated early evacuations of new areas east of the fire’s perimeter yesterday morning. These were generally through the buffer areas to the east from Westside Road to the western town limits of both Windsor and Healdsburg. Erratic winds could blow the fire in any direction, but the greatest fear is to the east and northeast.

INCOMING WEATHER

The first moisture from former hurricane Genevieve is now overhead, resulting in only high clouds. The main area of moisture is now off the coast of southern California near Point Conception and moving northward. At this point forecasters do not know precisely where or when that any thundershowers and dry lightning may take place across the region, but most high resolution, short term models (Mesoscale) show instability and convective showers developing late this afternoon through tonight, with the Bay Area and North Bay an area of focus. Most do show some precipitation occurring, ranging from a trace to a tenth, and no large event such as we saw a week ago. However the winds and lightning associated with the showers is the biggest threat and are being closely monitored.

Attached are images of the current fire location (two different sources), recent hot spots, and retardant drop activity from last night in the Mt. Jackson area north of Rio Nido/Mirabel.

SONOMA WATER MAP OF FIRE ADVANCES TO SUNDAY AM