VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND ACROSS NORTH BAY – INCREASED FIRE RISK

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High pressure will build all week across the West, peaking this weekend when temperatures will reach up to 20 degrees above normal. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue an Excessive Heat Watch for almost all of inland Calfornia including the North Bay from Friday morning through Sunday evening.

Expect widespread temperatures over 100 degrees beginning Thursday or Friday, with the hottest places in the North Bay potentially reaching 110 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. This will cause heightened fire danger, especially in finer fuels, across all of Northern California.

The building high pressure ridge is already compressing the marine layer along the coast, keeping it confined to within a few miles of the ocean in places like Bodega Bay.

A high pressure ridge will build in from the southwest, progressively growing stronger as the week progresses. It is forecast to reach a peak from Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures all across California and the Southwest will be 10-25 degrees above normal by late in the week, continuing through the weekend.

How hot will it be here in the North Bay? Widespread 90s will arrive by Wednesday, with temperatures in the upper 80s (nearer to the coast), to 105 Thursday.

Friday through Sunday will be downright hot, with inland temperatures from 95-110 degrees. The marine layer will be confined to the immediate coast, likely keeping temperatures there in the 70s.

Here is a look at expected temperatures on Saturday from the various forecast models. Take your pick. The GFS model is presently the hottest, and the National Blend of Models the coolest.

Here are the National Weather Service forecasts, along with the records for the date. The NWS frequently under forecasts highs for the North Bay, so consider these numbers to be the best case scenerio. Actual highs may be 3-7 degrees higher for Santa Rosa and Cloverdale, as well as similar inland areas.

Much will also depend on where the high pressure ridge sets up. If it is centered further to the west, hotter temperatures may reach the coast. For now it looks like a gradual cooling trend will start on Monday.

But somewhat hotter than average temperatures may be with us over the next 10 days, as both the GFS and European models agree.

Finally, due to our cool June, and wetter than average winter, the upcoming heat wave is projected to bring only moderately elevated fire danger to most of California including the North Bay and North Coast regions. This graphic is by the National Interagency Fire Center.