The Mirages Continue...

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As has been the case the entire winter season, hopeful hints of Northern California rain have disappeared as the promised date draws nearer.

The latest example of the models changing course is the rainfall expected, just a few days ago, around April 19-21. Now that chance has been reduced to memory.

Here is what the GFS saw, less than a week ago, for the 20th-21st of April. (Image 1)

Here’s what it sees now. (Image 2)

Sigh. Well, in case you’re still interested, the next expected date of the arrival of showers has been pushed to around April 26th. (Image 3)

Even if that comes to pass, don’t expect much accumulation. It looks like warm and dry is pretty much the forecast through the balance of April. The stubborn high pressure ridge over the West Coast continues to shunt storms north. (Image 4)

And that leaves California dry while much of the country sees rain. This is total rainfall expected by April 27th, as far in the future as the deterministic models are going at present. (Image 5) The dry patch…California.

A bit of good news? Well, the models have been off so consistently this season that the forecast could turn on a dime. So, if you’re the hopeful type, keep up the faith that we could have some showers by the end of the month.

The Canadian ensemble model thinks some showers, however light, will get this far south by the 27th. (Image 6)