THE EBBS AND FLOWS OF JULY

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Over the next week or two we can expect moderate weather across the North Bay, with few extremes. We will be slightly cooler than normal at times, and slightly warmer than normal at others, but there are no clear signals in the forecast models of extreme heat or extreme fire weather in the medium range.

FUELS

The current energy release component of fuels is slightly above average for the North Bay region, reflecting recent hot weather, (Image 1) and dry air in place across the region. (Image 2) But a slight downward bump in the last day or two shows the impact a push of cool, moist marine air can have on the region’s fuels. Still, as always during the summertime, fire danger will be ever present, especially across inland sections of the North Bay.

OUTLOOK

The big picture is that high and low pressure will alternate across the region over the next two weeks, with no force becoming dominant. What this means is that the coast and nearby areas will see lots of marine stratus, even drizzle at times, while inland areas will remain seasonable.

MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE

In the short term, low pressure will push in from the West and reach a peak around Sunday. (Image 3) That will keep us cooler than normal through July 4th or 5th. (Image 4) And with the trough will come increased moisture. Not rain, but higher humidity and a deeper marine layer that will accompany the cool air. (Image 5) This will benefit fuel moisture across the region.

By the middle of next week, high pressure will begin to build in. (Image 6) Not a giant dome, but the western edge of a ridge over Utah. Still, this will cause our inland temperatures to rise above normal for a few days. (Image 7) And with that will come drier air. (Image 8) Coastal areas will stay cool.

LONG RANGE

Signs are this ebb and flow of pressure, temperature and moisture will continue. There are hints that low pressure and cooler weather may return by mid-month. (Image 9) And, overall, the 30 day outlook through the end of July is for average, to slightly below average temperatures across the region. (Image 10)