Storm to Bring Substantial Rain Monday. Other Systems Arrive Later this Week.

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Our storm for Monday is on track to arrive in the North Bay before sunrise. The satellite view shows it approaching from the west. (Image 1)

This system will impact the morning commute and drop from 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of rain in most spots in Sonoma County and the North Bay. Up to 2 inches may fall in the mountains of the North Bay. (Images 2 and 3)

We will clear out for Tuesday with another storm due in on Wednesday around midday. This one will be somewhat weaker, with less rain. Perhaps a few tenths. (Image 4)

Still, by late Thursday, areas of the North Bay should have picked up substantial rain in the storm series. (Image 5)

Another mostly dry day Thursday will precede another storm on Friday. Still lots of uncertainty with this one. It may bring us another dose of around a half inch of rain. (Image 6)

There may be another storm next weekend. Then high pressure is expected to build in and stay around until the third week of January. (Image 7)

The models have been struggling with how far south toward California storms will dig. Typical La Nina issues. And this is complicated by other smaller scale patterns that are impacting our weather. You can see that even this week, the line of above average precipitation still stays north of us. We’re in the white area, which is near normal amount of precipitation. (Image 8)

By mid-January the jet stream will be pushed north by a high pressure ridge. This may send the storm track well to our North. (Image 9)

Will this change later in the month? Most forecasters think a pattern shift back to wetter weather will occur late in the month. This is when the Madden Julian Oscillation (tropical advection/thunderstorms) may move into a favorable position for us. But the models do not agree on timing. And other seasonal patterns will also be at play.

For now, let’s enjoy this coming week of rainy, wintery weather! Happy New Year!