STARTING SMALL. BIGGER STORMS NEXT WEEK.

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Showers move in Monday afternoon, the first taste of larger, more significant storms due to arrive next week.

SHORT TERM

An upper level disturbance will move over the North Bay Monday. This will help to usher in big changes in the larger scale weather picture for California. Showers will arrive late afternoon Monday, dropping a few hundreds to a few tenths of an inch of rain. (Images 1, 2 ,3)

LATER IN THE WEEK

By Thursday a deep cold trough will drop south over California. (Image 4) This will not be a big rainmaker, but it will bring much colder temperatures and a healthy dose of snow for the Sierra. (Image 5)

THE BIG SHOW BEGINS

If you follow this blog you know seasonal patterns have been hinting at a major pattern change to wet weather for some time. They appear to be lining up. By next Tuesday a deep cold low will be positioned off the West Coast. (Image 6)

As storms spin up in the trough, they will be able to pick up moisture off the Pacific. A good scenario for us. The first storm may arrive Tuesday the 14th into Wednesday the 15th, and another is possible Thursday the 16th into Friday the 17th. Nice rain totals are forecast by the end of next week. (Images 7, 8, 9)

And, there are indications the trough may stick around the West Coast through the third week of December. (Image 10) That leaves open the possibility of more storms in the week before Christmas.