Sonoma County May Again Fail to Leave Coronavirus Purple Tier

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Even as most Bay Area counties have now reached the “moderate” orange tier of the state of California’s Blueprint for Coronavirus Recovery, Sonoma County remains mired in the most restrictive “widespread” or purple tier. And current trends suggest this may not change when new tier assignments are released by the state of California on Tuesday.

Case rates per day per 100 thousand has long been among the most stubborn hurdles that has kept the county from advancing to less restrictions. Unfortunately the two week trend shows no indication that the county will soon reach the 7 case per day threshold that would qualify it to move to the less restrictive red tier.

Over the two weeks ending October 23rd, the overall case rate never dipped below 10 per day (per 100 thousand).

For tier assignment, this rate is calculated by the state on the basis of a 7 day average, with a lag time of one week.

By contrast, the overall positivity rate, or the percentage of all tests that come back positive, has consistently been low enough to advance to the state’s red, or “substantial” tier and has at times reached below 5, the threshold for the even lower orange, or “moderate” tier.

It’s instructive to compare Sonoma County to other nearby Bay Area counties where numbers have recently fallen. Two of these are Marin and Contra Costa counties.

In both counties, the case rates and positivity rates have fallen substantially in recent weeks.

By contrast, Sonoma County’s new case rate and health equity positivity rate have remained high.

Sonoma County has embarked on a months-long campaign of enhanced popup testing, public education and outreach and financial incentives to reach the most impacted parts of the community in a push to drive coronavirus numbers down. The effort will use $16 million in CARES funding through the summer of 2021.

Sonoma County’s health officer Dr. Sundari Mase said last week that compared to Bay Area counties, Sonoma County’s large number of agricultural workers, low wages and high cost of housing, and overcrowded living spaces are factors that are keeping the county’s numbers high.

In a briefing with reporters on Monday, Mase said the impact of the county’s push to find and isolate cases through testing and financial incentives will likely not be seen for several weeks, but she’s hopeful it will help Sonoma County move from the most restrictive purple tier. On Monday it was also revealed that 22 confirmed or suspected coronavirus cases were the result of the recent Glass Fire evacuations. And, Mase said, contact tracing may reveal more cases and exposures as a result of those evacuations.

Meanwhile, the county continues to lag in other metrics considered important in containing the spread of the coronavirus. These include the number of cases among the homeless, cases in skilled nursing facilities, ICU beds available and number of hospitalizations.

To view this visit this page: Sonoma County Coronavirus Metrics