SHOWERS, STORMS COMING TO NORTH BAY

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THE BIG PICTURE

By late this week our weather pattern will change, with disturbances coming through every few days. At first we’ll just be brushed by these storms as they pass to our north. Beginning this weekend however, showers and rain will increasingly push south, a pattern that may be with us for up to a week.

THE DETAILS

A ridge of high pressure will be with us through Friday, bringing more cool nights and warm days.

By late in the weekend a low pressure trough will begin to push in from the west, and the jet stream will sag south over California.

This will open the door to storms brushing us with showers on Saturday the 4th, and Monday the 6th.

There is model disagreement on how much rain we’ll receive. This is the National Blend of Models for rainfall by the Tuesday the 7th showing an inch plus for parts of the North Bay. This is the wetter scenerio at present.

A somewhat bigger storm seems to be in the offing for the 10th or 11th. It shows up well in all the models as a significant dip in the jet stream.

Most models have this storm for the 10th or 11th bringing significant rain, with another inch or so to the North Bay. However this far in the future the range of outcomes is wide, with the European and GFS models drier and the Canadian model wetter.

The National Blend of Models has been somewhat over forecasting rainfall this season, so look at these numbers as the wettest scenerio we’re likely to experience.

Here are the individual model forecasts for total rain across the North Bay by Saturday the 11th, from driest (European) to wettest (Canadian). As you can see, still quite a range of possible outcomes this far out.

For skiers, and from a water supply standpoint, the storms should start warm, with snow levels falling a bit by the end of next week. The GFS shows quite a bit of snow in the next 10 days. This is among the snowiest forecasts.