SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY

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A deep low pressure trough will dig far enough south to bring showers to parts of the North Bay on Saturday, and possibly something resembling real rain on Wednesday. You can see the low center south of Alaska on Friday.

The low will dig south and east rapidly, dragging a cold front that will wash out over our region on Saturday.

We’re expecting very light rain totals, maybe up to a tenth of an inch. Some areas may not get anything.

But this first trough will help to plow the way for the next shot of energy, due to arrive on Wednesday.

The models are more optimistic with the disturbance due in on Wednesday, currently suggesting it could drop an additional one quarter to one third of an inch of rain on top of the showers on Saturday. There is pretty good model agreement, at present, on this scenerio.

Not a deluge, but nice for early fall and also helpful to tamp down the fire danger a bit, at least temporarily.

Of course you can see that just to our south the rain drops off to almost nothing across the Bay Area. We’re definitely still on the southern edge of the storm track. So there is a decent chance that the totals may be a bit more, or somewhat less depending on the track and position of the low pressure center over the next few days.

We’ll have more updates for the North Bay as conditions warrant.