SHOWERS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING, FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE WIND EVENT LATE SUNDAY

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The well-defined cold front of the incoming system is bearing down on California, with rain already over the northwest corner of the state.

Rain showers should arrive across Lake and Mendocino counties by late afternoon, and around Santa Rosa from 8-9PM

This first storm is now in the range of high-resolution models. They show we can expect about one tenth to a quarter inch of rain by early Thursday.

The hills have a chance at over a third of an inch of rain, but most locations will see less. Showers should be spotty by Halloween evening.

Then, Friday afternoon the next storm arrives. Most of the models have it reaching the North Bay late Friday afternoon.

At press time this storm is trending a bit drier. Although the National Blend of Models still has us picking up more than a half inch of rain in most spots by late Saturday, the deterministic Euro and GFS models are coming in with less. Most likely the blended models will catch up if the trend continues.

Here’s the European model, which is trending drier for Friday-Saturday.

By late Sunday into Monday another pattern change is underway, and could place an “inside slider” low pressure system over the Great Basin. That may bring much of California another wind event Sunday night and perhaps on Wednesday morning as well. How strong this will be is still up in the air, but the rain coming our way and continued cool temperatures will help to reduce fire danger.

However it should be noted that these two systems will not bring enough rain to completely end the fire season, so continued vigilence is necessary. More updates to come.