Rising Positivity Rate, Hospitalizations Point to Rollbacks on Monday
As Sonoma County recorded its highest daily case total of 89 new cases on Friday, public health and business leaders were bracing for indoor business rollbacks that are almost certain to begin on Monday.
In the past several weeks a steady rise in cases, hospital admissions and also in the so called “positivity rate” has put Sonoma County on the state monitoring list. And, with cases still rising this weekend, it seems likely the region will reach the three days above acceptable level threshold required to trigger state-ordered action.
On Friday, county health officer Dr. Sundari Mase said the county is already working with the state on a plan for addressing the recent surge.
ROLLBACKS
If business rollbacks are announced Monday, the orders would primarily affect indoor business activity where the risk of virus spread is considered greatest. That means indoor shopping, dining, wine tasting and exercise would be curtailed, indoor movie theaters closed, and bars would close all indoor spaces. Outdoor activities, with the usual mitigation requirements, would be allowed.
By several measures Sonoma County, along with many other counties in the Bay Area, is seeing the greatest surge of coronavirus spread since the pandemic began.
TWO WEEK CASE TALLY
The two week tally of positive cases per 100 thousand reached 122 on Friday. Any number above 100 can trigger state monitoring. The rate has risen from less than 40 to the current number over the last 6 weeks. This has been accompanied by increased testing, but public health officer Mase says the rise is also indicative of community spread. Much of that spread has been in hot spots like senior care centers in which county officials are conducting surveillance testing and patient isolation.
POSITIVITY RATE
Another concerning sign is the positivity rate, or the number of positive cases as a percentage of total tests. In the past two weeks that rate has approached 4 percent, after hovering near 2 percent for months. That surge is bumping up the overall positivity rate since the pandemic began. Over shorter time spans, the positivity rate has approached 7 percent in Sonoma County.
Public health officials say that number is a key indicator of virus spread in the community.
HOSPITALIZATIONS
And hospitalizations are also rising. As of Friday 36 confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients were being treated in county hospitals, mirroring a rise in cases occurring statewide.
Sonoma County Hospitalizations
OTHER BAY AREA COUNTIES
As of Friday five Bay Area counties besides Sonoma are on the state monitoring list, or have been ordered to modify business reopening activities. They are Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, and Solano.
Of the counties located nearest to Sonoma, Marin shows the largest 2 week case rate per 100 thousand at 216.3 (second column). Marin’s positivity rate at 11.1 is also highest. Sonoma’s case rate is lower at 104 (calculated several days ago) but the increase in hospitalization at 21.7 percent (4th column) is highest of the nearby counties.
| Solano | 197.9 | 161.8 | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
| Sonoma | 213.0 | 104.1 | ✔ | 21.7 | ✔ | ✔ |
| Marin | 369.6 | 216.3 | 11.1 | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
Author: newsofthenorthbay
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