Real Time Data: California Coronavirus Curve Turns Downward

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Real-time data mapping by the New York Times shows coronavirus cases and deaths may be turning downward in California, a powerful demonstration of the impact of early stay-at-home orders across the state.

The data analysis also shows that Sonoma County has held the number of cases, and deaths per capita far below the overall levels of the state.

This graphic shows cases reported by day across the state. Despite increased testing, the number is now falling. Even as testing ramps up, this is an important sign that California is beginning the downward curve of the first coronavirus surge.

In another measure of the impact of coronavirus on the state’s healthcare system and population, the virus death rate, which typically lags the case rate by two weeks or more, appears to be leveling off. However experts caution there may continue to be large fluxuations as day-to-day reporting data arrives. Especially since the highest daily death rates have only recently occurred.

In Sonoma County, data shows a doubling in the number of cases every 26.5 days. That is among the lowest doubling rates in the state and a clear sign that stay-at-home and social distancing orders are working.

In the most heavily impacted areas of the nation, the so called “doubling rate” reached 1 or 2 days during the worst days of the outbreak.

In many other important measures, Sonoma County is also doing well in comparison with California and even the rest of the Bay Area.

This graphic shows the number of confirmed cases per 100 thousand population, as well as the number of coronavirus deaths per 100 thousand for selected Bay Area counties.

At 36 cases and less than one death per 100 thousand population, Sonoma County is faring better than the state of California as a whole as well as most of the Bay Area.

CASES/DEATHS PER 100 THOUSAND POPULATION

Although the data tracks the coronavirus in real time, officials caution it will take increased testing, and several more weeks, to determine for certain if and when the state has reached the “downward curve” of the current coronavirus epidemic.