Rain Still Coming, But Trending a Bit Drier for Weekend

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The first real rain of the season for the North Bay is still on track to arrive Friday, but recent models continue to trend drier for the upcoming weekend.

Our first image shows the storm winding up in the North Pacific.

Here is the European version of rain arriving in the early afternoon on Friday.

The models show a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain for the North Bay by Saturday. Here is the WPC blended forecast…not a bad guess at about a half inch to a bit more across Sonoma County by late Saturday.

By the middle of next week, models have backed off the wettest forecasts but continue to show low pressure off the West Coast.

The long range forecasts are still predicting a wet few weeks coming up, but after Friday it may be several days until the next storm arrives. Here is one forecast for rain in Norcal by November 22nd.

Not bad for the next 10 days.

And here is how the CFS forecast sees the second half of November and the first week of December.

It’s not unusual in a La Nina year for Northern California to be at the southern edge of the storm track. However on average, La Nina years work out fairly well for the northern third of the state. The past 7 La Nina seasons have brought us slightly more than the average amount of rain and snow.