RAIN MONDAY-TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT APRIL STORM STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.

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Monday’s storm is clearly visible on satellite as it approaches California at mid-morning Monday. (Image 1)

Rain will reach the North Bay Monday afternoon. (Image 2) Most areas can expect about a third of an inch of rain by Tuesday, more in the hills. (Image 3)

By late on Wednesday, deep low pressure will be off the California coast. (Image 4)

As low pressure spins off the coast, rain will arrive in two waves, the first late Wednesday (Image 5), and the second late Thursday (Image 6)

By the weekend, the North Bay could see around an inch of total rainfall (Mon-Tues storm and Wed-Thurs storm). (Images 7 and 8)

After that? After a break from the upcoming weekend into early next week, there are signs at least one additional storm may arrive at the end of the month. The GFS shows a trough pushing in late next week, (Image 9), and a storm for May 1st. (Image 10)

And if you’re interested in the snowpack in the Sierra, there are signs of some recovery from a very dry late winter period. 1-3 feet have fallen in the past week, and another 1-3 feet are expected over the coming week.

Here is the snow water equivalent on April 11th, one week ago across the central Sierra, (Image 11) compared with the SWE as of April 18th (Image 12)

And this is the forecast for new snow across the Sierra and Northern California over the next ten days. (Image 13)

The key 8 station Northern Sierra precipitation plot, tracking precipitation in the region of the state’s largest reservoirs, is moving in a positive direction. (Image 14-blue line)

And, although we may dry out after May 1st, the long range forecast shows we may stay cool into early May, with low pressure hanging around the Pacific Northwest. (Image 15)