RAIN (MAY BE) ON THE HORIZON FOR THE NORTH BAY

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After our November deluge the weather has been very quiet across the North Bay and all of California. For the next week or more that dry and sunny weather looks to continue before a possible pattern change back to rain around mid-month.

For now a high pressure ridge is in control across all of the West.

That has brought us beautiful weather, with fairly mild temperatures for early December. Actually a bit warmer than average for the date.

By the 12th-14th of December the ensemble models agree (at present) that the stubborn high pressure ridge will retrograde (move west), allowing upper level low pressure to make its way to the California coast.

As this happens one or more disturbances may have the chance to dive south into California. The first one may arrive around the 14th of December, and a second one a few days later. This is the European model. The GFS is similar, but has the rain starting a day earlier.

While all of this is encouraging it’s important to note that not long ago the ensemble models, averaging lots of possibilites, didn’t see this pattern change. And, it is still 10 days away.

But at present there is broad model consensus that the return of somewhat stormier weather is coming to California around mid-month. This pattern change shows up in the precipitation anomaly outlook for the third week of December. (below) For now that’s the main takeaway until the forecast firms up.

As the pattern change gets nearer (or fizzles), we’ll have more updates with further details.

Stay tuned!