Rain for Next Weekend? The Chances are Growing.

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It’s the news we’ve been waiting for; rain for Northern California and the North Bay. After a record-setting fire season, any precipitation would be a welcome change.

At present there is surprising agreement among many of the models that a pattern change will arrive Friday, with many saying that rain will follow right behind. The amounts vary depending on the model, from very wet to nothing. So at this point, 7 days out, we’re just going to sketch the outlines of what’s in the works.

Here is the forecast pressures for next Satuday. A deep low pressure trough over the West. That’s very good for our rain chances.

Both the American GFS and the European models show rain arriving about midday Friday.

As I said, it’s surprising that 7 days out most major models are jumping onboard with this rainy forecast for next weekend. Here are the forecast rain totals in the Euro and GFS models.

Not a lot, but a start. This is, of course, subject to change as the storm event gets closer.

And the average of Canadian model runs has more rain falling by the weekend of November 14th.

Finally, the Climate Forecast System is finally seeing above average precipitation for Northern California during the 3rd and 4th weeks of November. Here is week 4.

So, it’s good news. Will it last? Well, one very good sign is that so many forecast models are in general agreement this far out. That gives us greater confidence that next weekend will be the change in weather patterns that we’ve been waiting for, and that wetter weather may continue for a week or two after it arrives.

For now, let’s cross our fingers. We’ll provide more updates as the coming weekend approaches.