Quick Atmospheric River Arrives Friday

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In a winter chocked full of atmospheric river events, what could be the last of the season is taking aim at the North Bay, and will arrive on Friday with moderate to heavy rain, and windy conditions.

Here is the current set up in the eastern Pacific. You can see Friday’s moisture plume taking shape on the left side of the image.

Although the heaviest rain will arrive in the North Bay on Friday morning, we will see a rainy Thursday as well as an initial storm moves through the area. This will set the stage for the main event Friday, which is still considered a low end atmospheric river due to the tap of tropical moisture it will bring our way.

In this forecast, you can see the stream of highest moisture (blue) approach the West Coast on Thursday, arrive on Friday, and exit our area by Saturday.

Since the Friday storm is moving through more quickly than originally forecast, rain totals will be generally less than 3 inches across Sonoma County and the North Bay. The models vary…but the average is for about a half inch of rain on Thursday, and then 1-2 inches for Friday and Friday night.

The models are now in pretty good agreement that Monday will be the beginning of a slight warming trend, with storms being pushed to the north of us. We may have clouds at times as storms brush us. Highs could bump up into the upper 60s to 70 by midweek.

Further out, there are signs that a low pressure trough may drop down the West Coast in about a week’s time, giving us a stormy weekend of April 13th.

Still, that’s a week away and could change. For now, all eyes are on our incoming system, bringing stormy weather from Thursday into Saturday. Keep that umbrella by the door!