PATTERN CHANGE: BLUSTERY, SHOWERS BEGIN TUESDAY

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As the forecast models have been predicting for some time, our weather pattern will be changing to a more stormy one beginning late Tuesday, with the arrival of showers, blustery weather, and several weather systems over the coming week to ten days.

The first system will be a cut off low, that will head towards the Bay Area then south from Tuesday to Wednesday. You can see the well-defined low off the California coast on Monday.

Rain should arrive very late on Tuesday and last into Wednesday, probably impacting the Wednesday morning commute.

Rainfall amounts should be light to moderate in the North Bay. Here is the WPC blended model outlook for rain from this system. Maybe a quarter to a third of an inch. You can see the cutoff low is forecast to brush the coast as it moves south.

By late Thursday another storm system will approach, this time from the north.

After Tuesday, storms will be blocked by high pressure to our west, dropping into California from the north on the east side of the high pressure system. You can see that well here.

The jet stream will just brush California on its eastern side.

Still, the Thursday-Friday storm will likely drop some rain across the North Bay, with the 2 storm total (Tuesday-Friday) likely around a half inch in most places.

After that? It may stay dry for another week as systems pass to our east. The models hint at a storm possibly breaking through the high pressure dome and reaching us on Thursday the 7th. But that far out, the forecast is pretty unreliable.

After that the longer range outlooks are pretty dry, with systems being sent north into the Pacific Northwest through mid December. This could change, but that’s the best guess right now.