NORTH BAY ON FRINGES OF MID-LATE WEEK HEAT EVENT Some monsoonal moisture may also bring clouds at times

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SUMMARY
A heat wave building this week will mostly stay east of the North Bay, but may bring record or near record heat to inland areas of Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Protected inland valleys of the North Bay will be hot, but the marine influence will help to moderate temperatures elsewhere.

Monsoonal moisture will push north into our area at times Tuesday through Thursday, but it does not appear that the elements will be right for thunderstorms across the North Bay. However forecasters will be watching the trends.

DETAILS
On Monday, the West Coast satellite view showed smoke clearing across California and being pushed to the east. (Image 1)

A high pressure ridge off the Pacific NW coast is poised to push east. (Image 2)

By Tuesday and Wednesday, this ridge will push inland, causing a sharp heat-up from Western Canada through Northern California. (Image 3)

High temperatures from 100-105 will be common in the Pacific Northwest and in our protected inland valleys, places like Ukiah, Cloverdale and Lake County. A Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for inland areas of Mendocino and for Lake County. The Northern Sacramento Valley can expect to top out at 110 or so. The marine influence should keep central Sonoma County and other areas with marine influence cooler, in mid-80s to mid-90s. (Image 4 and 5) The inland heat should be with us through Friday, then start to moderate over the upcoming weekend.

Here is the projected heat impact. Much of the North Bay should be under a cooling marine influence. (Image 6)

By Tuesday, some monsoonal moisture will begin to approach from the southwest. By Wednesday and Thursday it will be passing over our area. (Image 7) Will it bring thunderstorms or dry lightning?

At this point the surge of moisture will likely be “decoupled” from the instability necessary for thunderstorms over the North Bay. That means convective development is less likely. However we’ll be watching this as trends develop.

The best chance for any activity over our area, if it occurs, may be sometime Thursday morning or afternoon as long-range models pick up a bit of potential at that time. (Image 8 and 9). However this is still far out and confidence is quite low. Just something we’ll be watching that will no doubt change as we get closer. Stay tuned!