NEXT STORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY, PACK A PUNCH THROUGH TUESDAY

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The next in a series of powerful Pacific storms is on our doorstep here in the North Bay, poised to bring heavy rain late Monday through much of Tuesday. The storm will intensify in the early morning hours Tuesday.

You can see the disturbance and slug of moisture headed our way. The jet stream will once again steer the storm at Northern and Central California.

The subtropical moisture feed is once again impressive with this storm, amounting to a moderate to strong atmospheric river.

Winds will rise to gale force along the coast, and gust from 30-40 mph at higher elevations of the North Bay. The peaks may see gusts greater than 50 mph early Tuesday as the storm moves through the region.

The rainfall outlook is for generally 1.5 to 4 inches of rain by Wednesday across the North Bay, with the hills getting the most.

As the ground is already super saturated, we can expect fast rises in area creeks and across low lying areas. The Tuesday morning commute, and possibly the afternoon one as well may be severely impacted.

In addition, the Russian River may approach flood stage at Guerneville early Wednesday, but at this point is expected to only exceed monitor stage. However as you can see in this 10 day ensemble outlook, the range of outcomes is great, and if the rain is heavier than forecast, this may change.

Other peaks may occur over the next week if additional storms arrive.

Further out, the storm train may pause for a few days after Wednesday. We will still be in a moist onshore flow, so showers are possible each day. However, the next sizeable storm looks to be late on Monday the 20th, potentially continuing into Wednesday the 22nd. However that far in the future the forecast is unreliable.