MORE OPTIMISTIC SIGNALS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER

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If you have been following our recent posts here at NNB, you know we’ve been talking about the increasing chance of a wetter than normal El Nino winter across the North Bay.

For a refresh, see this recent post. https://newsofthenorthbay.com/north-bay-winter-2023-2024-rainfall-outlook/

Now there are new signals that also point toward a relatively wet season for NorCal. The so called Superblend, which combines long range outlooks from the European and UK models shows a trend toward a northward push of the subtropical jet over California. That is a good sign. Here is the graphic.

The superblend clearly shows California wetter than average, but the PacNW drier than average. This is often the case with very strong El Nino conditions, but there are signs that warm water condition in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans may also be factors in driving the subtropical jet stream. Here’s a close-up. We’ll keep watching the signals.

In the shorter term another low pressure system dropping in from the northwest will bring showers to some of California this weekend.

Depending on how far west the low tracks, showers may reach the North Bay. Although most moisture could stay to our east, the recent trend has been toward bringing a few showers to our area. The European model is the wettest at present.

This forecast will certainly change and be refined over the next few days. For now though, don’t be surprised if showery weather returns to the North Bay by late Friday into Saturday.