MODELS TRENDING WETTER STILL FOR NORTH BAY, BAY AREA

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A quick update for the North Bay regarding our stormy weather now inbound. Thursday’s model runs have trended wetter with the major storm waves set to begin on Saturday. At this time there are no hydrologic warnings issued for the region, but this could become a possibility by this weekend depending on whether this trend continues.

The deep low that will bring a wave of moisture across the North Bay late Saturday is currently just northeast of Alaska, poised to drop south, while the low pressure trough that brought snow to the Sierra Wednesday and Thursday is departing to the east. (Images 1, 2)

By Sunday, the Alaskan low will be off our coast, spinning up storms. (Image 3) And by Tuesday, it will take a track even closer to California. (Image 4)

Couple that with a tropical moisture tap forecast by both the GFS and European models (Image 5), and you have the makings for prolific rain and snow. In fact, the NWS is forecasting a weak to moderate Atmospheric River which may set up and stall along the coast late Sunday into early Monday.

Here are the GFS and ICON model forecasts for rain through early Monday. (Images 6 and 7)

The GFS puts a bullseye of rain over the North Bay, showing copious amounts by Wednesday, (Image while the Euro forecasts a drenching, but keeps heavier rain to our south. (Image 9)

Finally, closeups from the Canadian and GFS models for rain by early Wednesday across the North Bay. (Image 10 and 11)

In dynamic situations such as this, with model variability, we sometimes look to the National Blend of Models, which averages all current model runs. These totals are by Wednesday morning. (Images 12 and 13)

One thing is certain. The storm will bring lots of rain by Wednesday the 15th, and most models now predict the possibility of another inch or so by the following weekend. (Image 14)