MODELS HINT AT WET LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER

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Weather forecasters are reading the tea leaves, hoping to find signs of a return to wet weather for Northern California.

What they are seeing is a huge high pressure center over Alaska, with a dominant ridge extending south along the West Coast. That will keep us dry through next Sunday the 20th.

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But in a week, the Eastern Pacific Oscillation is forecast to go from a very negative phase, into positive territory. This subseasonal pattern is a major factor influencing atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific.

In a nutshell, this may bring a low pressure trough to the West Coast by sometime Thanksgiving Week, possibly ushering in another period of more stormy weather for Northern California.

Most models agree on that much.

And, if you’re the optimistic type, there are hints that the trough may deepen off the coast by late November.

At this point the European and GFS models diverge. The Euro sees some moderate rain arriving Thanksgiving Week, with more after that. The GFS holds it off, but hints it may reach CA late in the month.

However, the long range versions of both models agree (for now) that the last days of November and first week of December may bring more rain than average to Northern California, with drier weather returning by mid-December. (video below)

More updates to come!