MODELS: COOL CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SEPTEMBER

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As the North Bay enjoys a cool, pleasant weekend, long range outlooks signal that our near-ideal summer weather may continue.

Low pressure off the coast of California Friday (Image 1), will move toward the coast through Tuesday. (Image 2) That will keep us cool into early next week. (Image 3)

The fuel moisture levels of fuels across the North Bay have benefited by our recent light rain and a persistent marine layer. The energy release component of fuels is below average for this time of year. (Image 5) Good news!

More good news. The long range models suggest near average temperatures may last into September. (Image 4)

Looking further ahead, the uber long range seasonal outlook from the European model, for Sept, Oct, and Nov, hints that we may start the fall and early winter with above average rainfall. (Image 6)

All of this makes sense, as we are currently in a La Nina summer, with a La Nina fall predicted. This normally features cool water off the CA coast, which has been the case this summer, fortifying our marine layer, and allowing low pressure to hang around the West Coast.

Overall, a La Nina fall may transition to an ENSO neutral winter. That is, neither La Nina nor El Nino. This forecast graphic (Image 7) summarizes the outlook, with the blue La Nina forecast giving way to the gray ENSO neutral signals by midwinter.

For us, La Nina and ENSO neutral can go either way. Wet or dry. Here’s the classic (and highly simplified) version of a La Nina winter. (Image 8) Sometimes we get an early shot of rain, then dry until January (last winter for example.) But the best way to describe this setup is chaotic…and we’ll be watching the forecast as it evolves!