Model Confirms: Social Distancing Saving Thousands of California Lives

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According to a new projection from the Washington based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, strict early measures undertaken in California to slow the coronavirus are having a dramatic and positive impact on hospitalizations and deaths.

The model uses a wealth of new data gathered in the almost three weeks since shelter-in-place and social distancing became a way of life across the Golden State. The model also incorporates data from additional virus testing that has taken place across California in the past several weeks.

The Institute’s modeling is highly respected and widely used by healthcare and governmental agencies including the U.S. government and the state of California.

In a new report issued Sunday, the Institute projects the number of deaths by August 4th in California will reach 1783. This contrasts sharply with a projected death toll of more than 5100 just two weeks ago. The model is based upon the assumption that full social distancing measures will be maintained through May.

Further, the new model results, issued on April 5th, project that California’s peak use of hospital facilities including hospital and ICU beds may be far less than initially feared. All due to new data showing the state has flattened the curve of the virus.

The healthcare usage shows the system should be able to meet the peak of demand, which is projected to come on April 14th, approximately one week earlier than initially forecast.

Finally, the new projections forecast the peak number of coronavirus deaths will occur on April 17th, at a much lower number than was forecast only weeks ago.

In all of the projections, the shaded areas indicate the range of possibilities, with the dotted lines showing the projections.

The state of California uses this model and others in forecasting the impact of the coronavirus on the state’s 40 million residents and the California healthcare system.

On Monday, Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the state would send 500 state-owned ventilators to the national stockpile as they are no longer expected to be needed in the coming weeks.