MILD OFFSHORE WINDS FOR NORTH BAY. HUGE NORTH PACIFIC HEAT UP. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

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SUMMARY – MORE HEAT, AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE

Although the North Bay will reach the 90s through the middle part of the coming week, recent mild temperatures and moist marine air have kept fuel moisture levels (blue line) near average for this time of year. (Image 1) That’s good news.

Sunday and Monday mornings may bring light offshore winds, but these are not expected to reach advisory levels.

Later next week, more monsoonal moisture will be drawn into Northern California by low pressure forming off the West Coast. At this point the rain looks to be confined to the Sierra and Southern California, with a bit reaching far Northern California. (Image 2)

NORTH PACIFIC HEAT UP

Of great interest currently is a rapid heat up of sea surface temperatures off the California coast, and across almost the entire North Pacific. The re-emergence of a warm water “blob” is not only unusual during our current La Nina conditions, but has rapidly reached levels rarely seen. (Image 3)

Already the heat up has brought tropical fish species like the Mahi Mahi to the Southern California offshore waters, and other subtropical species to the Northern California coast.

A close up look at the current sea surface temperature anomaly shows unusually warm water from just north of Hawaii, extending to the California coast. Further north, SST’s are off the charts. (Image 4)

SO, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US?

The ocean temperature signals are a topic of much debate in scientific circles. While the cool water near the equator is typical of a moderate La Nina, the hot water further north is not. One theory being circulated is controversial, and it holds that persistent high pressure forming over the warm sea surface of the North Pacific will force the storm track south, gracing Callifornia with substantial rain. This would be similar to the winter of 2016-2017. Other theories are more ominous, with the return of a North Pacific blocking high pressure system that keeps storms from reaching California. Both scenerios are illustrated in this graphic. (Image 5)

Importantly, this extremely warm sea surface water has shown up only recently, and may not be around through the fall and winter. It is simply too early to tell. For now our relatively high humidities (for Northern California) in recent weeks are almost certainly due in part to the water temperatures. And, it is becoming increasingly acknowledged that climate change is altering past climate patterns to a significant degree. We will continue to follow the situation and keep you up to date.

For now, the 30 day outlooks for temperature and precipitation call for continued moderate temperatures for coastal Northern California with a trend toward more heat inland, influenced by a heat dome expected to be centered over southern Canada into early September. (Image 6)

And the 30 day precipitation anomaly keeps us near normal, with a continuing active monsoon season dropping rain from the desert Southwest and Rockies to the Sierra. (Image 7)