LIKELY DRY UNTIL DECEMBER FOR NORTH BAY

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Most of the North Bay received a healthy rain of 1-3 inches in the past few days. That moisture will have to hold us for awhile as the outlook for the next 10 days looks dry. Here is where the rain fell from the offshore low pressure system last week.

Overall, the North Bay did pretty well.

High pressure and a slight warmup is in store for most of California through Wednesday.

On Thanksgiving low pressure will drop south into the Great Basin and Rockies. This should just bring us a bit of a cooldown for the end of the week and maybe some gusty winds, but no rain.

There are no real changes to our dry weather pattern until around December 1st. At that time the GFS forecast model extends low pressure into the area, and brings some rain in for the first few days of December.

Meanwhile the European model is more delayed, holding the pattern change off until around the end of the first week of December, but showing increasing chances for above normal rain as we get further into December.

This thinking is supported by the CFS which shows a wet period possible around mid-December.

All of that’s pretty far out in the future and could change. But, the good news is that the major models agree on a pattern change as we start December, and also agree that December (at present) looks, if anything, wetter than average.

We’ll keep a watch on trends for the North Bay and update the forecast as needed.