LA FIRES UPDATE: THE NORTH SOUTH RAINFALL DIVIDE

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The tragic Los Angeles-area wildfires of the past week were fueled by a warming and changing climate, and also by one of the driest water years ever experienced across the southern half of California. The figures are astounding.

Since the October beginning of the water year, the Los Angeles area has received only a small fraction of their average rainfall to date.

In absolute terms that equals less than a half inch of rain has fallen since October in most places. And, prior to that it was dry through the summer and fall. Basically no rain since the end of the 2023-2024 water year last spring.

The north-south divide is equally shocking. The northernmost third of California is above average since October (including the North Bay), and the rest of the state and especially the southern third, remains very dry.

In terms of percentages, the North Bay ranges from 120 to almost 200 percent of average for the date.

That translates to more than 20 inches of rain in most places.

This has been due to a stubborn high pressure dome that has deflected storms north all winter. Luckily, until recently the North Bay has been at the southern edge of most of those storms and has remained wet.

That pattern of a big blocking high pressure center looks to continue until the third week of January, when the high finally shifts west, and low pressure pushes in from the northeast.

However, even that may not bring relief to Southern California. In fact, it is not until the second week of February that the models suggest above average rainfall may return, but it appears only to Northern California. And, for now, there are still no strong signs that Southern California will receive significant rain over the new few weeks, or longer.